UFC on ESPN 61 Picks & Odds Breakdown

UFC on ESPN 61 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and this should be an exciting card.  Let’s take a look at a free play on each of the main card fights to make your Saturday a winning one. 

Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak 

Tybura +132 / Spivak -162  // Total Rounds: 3.5

Marcin Tybura and Sergey Spivak are both ranked in the Top Ten of the heavyweight division, and they have already faced off one time. These two teams faced off in February 2020, and it was Tybura that was able to secure the unanimous decision victory. Tybura last faced off against Tai Tuivasa and late in the first round he was able to lock in a submission attempt to secure the victory. Spivak had issues getting the fight to the ground in his last fight, and it’s going to be much of the same here. Tybura’s getting older, but he’s still the better fighter here. Back Tybura as the underdog to secure the win. 

Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal 

Jackson +190 / Mariscal -230  // Total Rounds: 2.5

This originally was supposed to be Chepe Mariscal against Dan Ige, but after Ige stepped in on short notice in his last fight, it’s now Damon Jackson that is going to move in for this fight on shorter notice that he probably wants. Jackson wants to find the submission, and Mariscal has never lost his fight by submission. Mariscal is a pressure fighter, and that is something that Jackson isn’t going to be able to handle. Mariscal is going to wear down Jackson and will get the finish. Back Jackson by finish. 

Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Barlow -380 / Veretennikov +300  // Total Rounds: 2.5

Danny Barlow and Nikolay Veretennikov should be an exciting fight, and there isn’t a strong play on the other side. Barlow probably should win, but there is zero chance I am willing to lay -380 with him here. These are both fighters that have a ton of power, though, and both fighters are going to look for the knockout early. One of these fighters is going to get it done, and it will happen in the first two rounds. Back the under 2.5 rounds to cash here. 

Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le

Gutierrez -535 / Le +400  

Quang Le might be a big underdog in this fight, but that isn’t because he lacks confidence. Le has predicted a quick knockout in this fight, and in response Gutierrez said that he expects the same. This is a short notice opponent for Gutierrez, and once he steps into the octagon, it’s going to be an even shorter notice before Le is knocked out. This one is going to be over quickly. Back Guiterrez to win this fight by knockout. 

Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler 

Santos -148 / Chandler +124  // Total Rounds: 2.5

Santos hasn’t won a fight since 2021, but she still is the favorite heading into this fight. Santos only real way to victory here is by getting the fight to the ground and sitting there, and I am just not sure that way of fighting is going to be what they need to find success. Chandler might not be the most exciting fighter, but he will land enough strikes to get the job done here. Back Chandler on the money line to cash. 

Shane Mickle's Pick: Marcin Tybura ML