Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, April 16th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 11-7 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 6-3 home record and are coming off a 2-0 home win against the Nationals. Their previous three games were a 4-5 home loss against the Nationals, a 16-5 home win, and a 6-7 road loss against the Cubs.

The Pirates have a .244 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .385 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Ryan O’Hearn is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 16, and Brandon Lowe adds a team‑high 7 home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 8-10 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 7-5 away record and are coming off a 0-2 road loss against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 5-4 road win against the Pirates, a 5-16 road loss, and an 8-6 road win against the Brewers.

The Nationals have a .263 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .416 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .367 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 19 and adding a team‑high 6 home runs.

Foster Griffin (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 2-0 record, 1.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: April 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.12
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Nationals: –

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won 12 of their last 13 day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last five day games following a loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Thursday games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Foster Griffin      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 1.76
• Road Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: –

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Nationals following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Nationals following a win.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the last six games between the Nationals and Pirates at PNC Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Nationals’ last six day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Nationals’ last nine games at PNC Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five home games against NL East opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine day games.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in four of his five previous home appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T4th in the league in Steals (7) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against the Pirates.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• CJ Abrams ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.717) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.219).
• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.25).
• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (34).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.89).

Nationals vs Pirates Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh.

In this Nationals vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -165 home favorites. The Pirates have the 2-1 lead in this series but they are facing the leftie Foster Griffin who has been excellent this season with just one earned run in his last two starts. Braxton Ashcraft has also just two earned runs in his last two starts so I’m expecting both pitchers to keep offenses in check. Only one game of this series had more than 9 runs, so take the under 9 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 9