Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/10/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 10th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 18-22 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 13-12 home record and are coming off an 8-7 win at home against the Nationals. They will face the Twins and the Rays next.

The Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .353 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 34, also adding a team‑high 9 home runs.

Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 3-2 record, 4.01 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 19-21 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 13-8 away record and are coming off a 7-8 loss on the road against the Marlins. They will face the Reds and the Orioles next.

The Nationals have a .243 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.80 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .295 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 36. James Wood adds a team‑high 11 home runs.

Cade Cavalli (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 1-2 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 10, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Nationals: 4-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won eight of their last nine day games against the Nationals following a win.
• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Marlins following a road loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against the Nationals following a win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against the Marlins following a road loss.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight home day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 4.15
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-0

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Nationals have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last 12 road games following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in seven of their last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Nationals’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins’ last five games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Cade Cavalli’s last seven appearances as a starter.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against the Nationals.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in each of his last seven appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 14 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (55) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in two of the Nationals’ last three day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 15 road games against NL opponents.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (44).
• The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (59).
• The Nationals rank T2nd in the league for runs scored this season (215).

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Nationals and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Miami.

In this Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -160 home favorites. Both teams have split wins in this series and I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they both have a combined 8.16 ERA and have been shaky at best lately. Both teams are also better against right-handed pitching with 10.2 runs/9 combined and yesterday’s game had 15 total runs, so I expect another high-scoring affair today. Take the over 8.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 8.5