Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 10/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet Thursday in MLB Game 4 ALCS action at T-Mobile Park. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction. This article will include a Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays look to win another road game to even up the series at 2-2. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .300 on the season, have a .350 OBP, and a .545 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 4.94 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 13 hits and 10 RBI while Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho have combined for 21 hits and 12 RBI.

Max Scherzer gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA and 82 strikeouts this season. Scherzer is 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA and 171 strikeouts in his postseason career. Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 55 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners look to take a 3-1 series lead and become a game away from a World Series berth. The Seattle Mariners are batting .219 on the season, have a .298 OBP, and a .392 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Seattle Mariners with 11 hits and 6 RBI, while Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco have combined for 18 hits and 10 RBI.

Luis Castillo gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA and 162 strikeouts this season. Castillo is 2-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 23 strikeouts in his postseason career. Castillo is 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 12-8      ERA: 3.42
• Home Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-2

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won six of their last seven games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five games following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six playoff games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in five of their last six night playoff games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer      Record this season: 5-5      ERA: 5.19
• Road Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The road team has won each of the last eight games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
• The Mariners have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 14 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in seven of their last nine games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Blue Jays and Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last six night games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight Thursday games at T-Mobile Park.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last four home games against AL East opponents.
• Luis Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Thursday appearances in night games.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against the Blue Jays.
• Luis Castillo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Mariners as favorites.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.589) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games as underdogs.
• Max Scherzer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Thursday night appearances against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against AL West opponents.
• George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 3rd in the league for home runs this season (238).
• The Mariners rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (161).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.333).
• The Blue Jays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (1099).

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

The Blue Jays finally found their offense in their game 3 victory and if that carries over we’ll be going back to Canada evened up. However, Castillo has been money lately, allowing 18 hits and 8 runs in his last 35.1 innings. The Mariners have won 6 straight games with Castillo on the mound. Castillo has a 2.60 ERA and .192 allowed batting average in 100.1 home innings. Scherzer is a Hall of Famer and has been in endless big games, but he’s allowed 24 hits and 17 runs in his last 15 innings. In 35 road innings, Scherzer has a 5.91 ERA and .252 allowed batting average. At 41 years old, Scherzer is a shell of himself. I’ll side with the Mariners for a bounce back performance.