Tigers vs Guardians Prediction 10/1/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Tigers vs Guardians prediction for this MLB  game on Wednesday, October 1st at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are up 1-0 in this series after they won game one by a score of 2-1 on Tuesday afternoon. Detroit took a 1-0 lead in the first inning, but needed a run in the seventh to escape with the huge victory. The Tigers recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Torkelson and McKinstry, who both had one RBI in the win. Detroit started Skubal, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.2 innings for the win, while Vest picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Tigers lost two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Guardians. Detroit has lost 10 of their last 12 games and they finished second in the AL Central standings. The Detroit pitching staff had a 3.95 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 758 runs with a .247 batting average and a .316 on base percentage in the regular season. Riley Greene led Detroit with 36 home runs and 111 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson added 31 home runs and 78 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Casey Mize, who is 14-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 149.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are facing elimination in this game after they dropped game one by a score of 2-1 on Tuesday. Cleveland tied the game in the fourth inning and they had the tying run on third with no outs in the ninth, but couldn’t score and ended up with the tough loss. The Guardians recorded four hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Arias, who went 1-3 with one RBI in the loss. Cleveland started Gavin Williams, who allowed five hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while three pitchers combined for the last 3.0 innings. 

Prior to this series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Rangers and two out of three against the Tigers. Cleveland has won 14 of their last 18 games and they won the AL Central by one game over Detroit. The Cleveland pitching staff had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 643 runs with a .226 batting average and a .296 on base percentage in the regular season. Jose Ramirez led Cleveland with 30 home runs and 85 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo added 27 home runs and 70 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 182.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Tigers 

The Tigers have lost eight of their last nine games against American League opponents following a win.
The Guardians have won five of their last six games following a loss.
The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents.
The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday day games.

Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians 

The underdogs have won five of the last seven games between the Tigers and Guardians.
The Guardians have lost five of their last six playoff games.
The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Tigers’ last 13 games.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 day games against the Tigers following a loss.
The Tigers have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL Central opponents.
The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Wednesday day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Tigers’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Nine of the Guardians’ last 10 games as favorites against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last five home games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Tigers’ last 13 games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 11 Wednesday games.
Will Brennan has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with the Guardians as favorites against AL opponents.
Lane Thomas has hit a home run in two of his three previous playoff appearances against the Tigers at Progressive Field.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

Riley Greene has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last five games at Progressive Field.
Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Tigers as road underdogs against AL opponents.
Riley Greene ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Guardians rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.373).
The Guardians rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.296).
The Tigers rank 26th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1454).
The Tigers rank 23rd in the league for doubles this season (244).

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction 

Detroit had plenty of chances to pull ahead in game one on Tuesday, but they struggled with runners on and barely escaped with the win. The Tigers are 42-40 on the road this year, while the Guardians are 45-37 on the road. Cleveland is kicking themselves for not converting in the ninth inning and they are starting Bibee, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Detroit is starting Mize, who has allowed 2, 3, 3, 2, and 1 earned run in his last five. I know we hardly saw any offense on Tuesday, but I do think the Tigers will find success here, as they have faced Bibee twice in the last two weeks. Take the over here.