Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction 9/17/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rangers vs Astros Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 17th at the Daikin Park in the third game of this series, with the Astros having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have an 83-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Astros have a 45-32 home record and 70-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-5 home victory over the Rangers, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Athletics and the Mariners next.

The Astros have a .253 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 147 hits, adding a team-high 25 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 82. 

Cristian Javier (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1-3 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 79-73 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 32-45 road record and are 68-81 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-6 road defeat by the Astros, and have three straight losses. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Twins and the Marlins next.

The Rangers have a .238 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .388 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 123 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .257 batting average. Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 74, while Corey Seager adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Jacob deGrom (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers, and he has a 12-7 record, 2.82 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: September 17, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier      Record this season: 1-3      ERA: 4.78
• Home Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Rangers: 2-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last three games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against the Astros following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line each of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom      Record this season: 12-7      ERA: 2.82
• Road Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-1

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Astros have lost five of their last six games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 Wednesday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as road favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rangers’ last four road games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rangers’ last eight night games at Daikin Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Astros as underdogs.
• Cristian Javier has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Astros as home underdogs.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Astros as home underdogs against the Rangers.
• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in four of his last seven home appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.304) this season.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Josh Jung has recorded at least one Double in each of the Rangers’ last three games as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• Jacob deGrom has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Wednesday appearances.
• Josh Jung has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Corey Seager has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL West opponents.
• Jacob deGrom ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.82) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1423).
• The Astros rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.232).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.44).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (561).

Rangers vs Astros Prediction

The Astros are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Rangers, and are 3-1 their last 4 meetings in Houston. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Rangers vs Astros Prediction, the Rangers are coming as -130 road favorites. The Astros have won both games of this series, but the Rangers are putting DeGrom on the mound, who has been elite this season. On the flip side, Javier takes the mound for the Astros, and he has struggled in his last two starts, having 4 earned runs in each one. Texas has the 5th-best bullpen ERA in baseball, and have a slightly better offense than Houston, so I like them in a bounce-back spot today. Take the Texas Rangers on the moneyline on the road.