Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 6/9/25 MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox meet Monday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will start Shane Baz here, and Baz is 5-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 60 strikeouts this season. In his career, Baz is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 24 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Brayan Bello will get the start here and is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA and 33 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rays, Bello is 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA and 28 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on their 3-2 win over the Marlins in Sunday’s series finale to sit at 35-30 on the year. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for a series against the New York Mets.

Rays Win Back-To-Back Series

Jonathan Aranda has 62 hits with a team-high 12 doubles, 7 home runs, and 34 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 56 hits with 13 homers and 35 RBIs as well, while Junior Caminero has 62 hits with 15 doubles, a team-high 15 home runs, and 40 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 60 hits with 13 doubles, 9 homers, and 36 RBIs, and Kameron Misner has 37 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 18 RBIs as well, while Christopher Morel has 53 strikeouts while Lowe has 66 strikeouts, and Misner has 57 K’s as well this season. Jose Caballero has 21 stolen bases, while Taylor Walls has 7 stolen bases, and Chandler Simpson has 19 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The underdogs have won 10 of the last 12 games between the Rays and Red Sox.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a win.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit at least one home run in three of the Rays’ last four games against AL East opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in each of the Rays’ last four games against AL East opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Jonathan Aranda ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.320) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox will be out to build on their 11-7 win over the New York Yankees from Sunday night baseball to sit at 32-35 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a series rematch against the Yankees.

Red Sox Win Rivalry Series

Alex Bregman has 59 hits, including a team-high 17 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 71 hits with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 57 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 55 hits with 8 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 78 hits with 17 doubles, 7 triples, 4 home runs, 37 RBIs, and a team-high 13 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 48 hits with 9 doubles, 6 homers, and 20 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has 13 home runs with 32 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 6 homers, 2 triples, 25 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The home team has won six of the Rays’ last seven games.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six road games following a win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 11 games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last three games as favorites.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Red Sox’s last six games against AL East opponents.
• Rafael Devers has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites against the Rays.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Jarren Duran ranks T4th in the league in Hits (78) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Rays in this one. I just think this is a quick turnaround for the Red Sox after a big series win over the Yankees, and Bello just doesn’t have the best numbers this season, both overall and expected numbers. The Rays are on a bit of a roll right now, and I’m not interested in stepping in front of them right now. Give me Tampa Bay in this one.