Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9/1/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 1st at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 67-69 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 34-33 home record and are 57-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-4 road victory over the Nationals, and have three consecutive wins. Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Guardians and the White Sox next.

The Rays have a .250 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .401 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 143 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .284 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 94 and in home runs, with 39.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has an 8-11 record, 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 73-64 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Mariners have a 32-37 road record and are 73-58 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Guardians, which ended their two-game losing streak. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games and they are playing the Braves and the Cardinals next.

The Mariners have a .242 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners in hits with 149, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .266 batting average. Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 107, and in home runs with 50.

Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has an 8-7 record, 3.75 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

The Mariners have lost each of their last five games as favorites following a road win.
The Rays have won eight of their last 12 games as home underdogs against AL West opponents following a win.
The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games following a win.
The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six games as home underdogs against the Mariners.
The Rays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games.
The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

The Rays have lost each of their last eight games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mariners have won each of their last four games against the Rays.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last eight Monday games against the Rays.
The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Nine of the Mariners’ last 10 road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Rays’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last six night games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Mariners’ last five road games against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (172).
The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
The Mariners rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (186).
The Mariners rank 29th in the league for triples this season (7).

Mariners vs Rays Prediction

The Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Rays, but the Rays are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Tampa. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Mariners vs Rays Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -115 road favorites. Both pitchers are coming into this matchup in terrible form, as Baz for the Rays has a 1-4 record and a 7.92 ERA in his last 5 starts, while Castillo has 14 earned runs in 13 innings pitched across his last three starts. Both pitchers home/away splits are terrible, as Baz has a 7.06 home ERA and Castillo a 5.04 road ERA. Both offenses are better against right-handed pitching, averaging 9.9 runs per game combined, so I expect some fireworks offensively in this one. Take the over 8.5 runs.