San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/21/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Giants vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 21st at the Petco Park in the 4th game of this series, with the Padres having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 71-56 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 40-21 home record, and are 52-71 in over/under. The Padres are coming off an 8-1 home victory over the Giants, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games and are playing the Dodgers and the Mariners next.

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Manny Machado leads the Padres with 143 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .292 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 74, and in home runs, with 21.

Dylan Cease (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 5-11 record, 4.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

San Francisco Giants Preview

The San Francisco Giants have a 61-66 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL West. They have a 31-33 road record and are 58-64 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-8 road defeat by the Padres, and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games and are playing the Cubs and the Brewers next.

The Giants have a .232 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. San Francisco’s pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Heliot Ramos leads the Giants with 129 hits and is the team’s best hitter, with a .265 batting average. Wilmer Flores leads the team in RBI with 63, while Willy Adames adds a team-high 19 home runs.

Justin Verlander (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants, and he has a 1-9 record, 4.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Giants have lost eight of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won nine of their last 10 games against the Giants following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games following a win.
• The Giants have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight Thursday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Giants have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Giants have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Why the San Francisco Giants will win

• The Giants have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL West opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 Thursday games as home favorites.
• The Giants have covered the run line in four of their last five road games against National League opponents following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last three day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Giants’ last eight games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Padres’ last 10 day games at Petco Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Giants’ last eight games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.224).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (931).
• The Giants rank 30th in the league for steals this season (56).
• The Giants rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (112).

Giants vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 meetings against the Giants, and are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in San Diego. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Giants vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -160 home favorites. Verlander takes the mound for the Giants and what stands out is his 1-9 record, so I definitely don’t trust him on the road against a good pitcher and the best bullpen in the league. Cease is actually very good at home, with a 3.61 home ERA, and he has been in good form lately, with a 4-1 record and a 3.12 ERA across his last 5 starts, while Verlander is 1-4 in his last 5. They Padres also dominate the Giants in recent years so don’t overcomplicate this and take the better team, with the better pitcher and the better bullpen. Take the San Diego Padres to get the job done at home.