San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Mariners Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 17th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 22-25 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the AL West. They have a 12-13 home record and are coming off a 7-4 loss against the Padres. They will face the White Sox and the Royals next.

The Mariners have a .232 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Luke Raley is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 27. Luke Raley adds a team high 10 home runs.

George Kirby (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 5-2 record, 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 27-18 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL West. They have a 14-8 away record and are coming off a 7-4 win against the Mariners. They will face the Dodgers and the Athletics next.

The Padres have a .223 batting average this season, .294 OBP and .367 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts is the team’s best hitter with a .263 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 23. Xander Bogaerts adds a team high 7 home runs.

Lucas Giolito (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres and last season he had a 10-4 record, 3.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: May 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season: 5-2      ERA: 2.84
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-2

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last nine Sunday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games at T-Mobile Park following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last six Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games following a win.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Lucas Giolito      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Road Record: –
• Last 5 against Mariners: 2-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mariners have lost each of their last six games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won each of their last 10 Sunday games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last 10 Sunday games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres’ last nine day games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mariners’ last five games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last 16 games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last seven games against NL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• J.P. Crawford has hit a home run in three of the Mariners’ last five home games.
• George Kirby has recorded a win in each of his last five Sunday appearances in day games.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Randy Arozarena ranks T8th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine road appearances against AL West opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 road appearances against the Mariners after playing the previous day.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (118).
• The Mariners rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (425).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (329).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.223).

Padres vs Mariners Prediction

The Padres have won their last five meetings against the Mariners and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Seattle.

In this Padres vs Mariners Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -160 home favorites. The Mariners are looking to avoid a series sweep at home today with George Kirby on the mound, who has been excellent this season and has not given up more than two runs across his last six starts and no homers in his last four. On top of that, the Mariners currently have the best bullpen in baseball, so I expect them to bounce back and win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Seattle Mariners ML