San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction 9/18/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Mets Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 18th at the Citi Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 78-74 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 47-30 home record and are 72-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-7 home defeat by the Padres, that ended their two-game winning streak. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Cubs and the Nationals next.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 160 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .270. He also adds a team-high 119 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 41 home runs.

Jonah Tong (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-2 record, 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 83-69 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 36-41 road record, and are 65-81 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 7-4 road victory over the Mets, that ended their two-game losing streak. Over is 4-0 in their last 4 games and are playing the White Sox and the Brewers next. 

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .390 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Louis Arraez leads the Padres with 168 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team both in RBI, with 92, and in home runs, with 26. 

Randy Vasquez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 5-6 record, 3.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Betting Trends: September 18, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jonah Tong      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 8.49
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Padres: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last six road games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have won seven of their last eight games against the Padres following a home loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against the Mets following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Padres following a home loss.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 day games against the Padres at Citi Field.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Randy Vasquez      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 3.72
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven day games against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have won 16 of the Mets’ last 21 games at Citi Field.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last five games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Double in three of the Mets’ last four day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in five of the Mets’ last six home games against NL West opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 games as home favorites.
• Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in three of the Padres’ last four road games against NL East opponents.
• Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T5th in the league in Hits (166) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (138).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (527).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1119).

Padres vs Mets Prediction

The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Mets, but the Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in New York. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Padres vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -135 home favorites. This like makes no sense, as the Mets are putting Jonah Tong on the mound, who has 14 earned runs in his three starts this season. On the flip side, Randy Vasquez has been solid this season and he has been in great form lately, with a 4-1 record and 3.24 ERA across his last 5 starts. San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball and are better against right-handed pitching, so I really like them in this spot as road dogs. Take the San Diego Padres and the plus money in this one.