San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 9/30/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs meet Tuesday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Nick Pivetta for the start here and Pivetta was 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 190 strikeouts in the regular season. Matthew Boyd will get the start for the Cubs and was 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 154 strikeouts in the regular season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game after finishing 90-72 on the year and finishing in a Wild Card spot.

Padres Make 4th Playoff Appearance Last 6 Seasons

Manny Machado has 169 hits including a team-high 33 doubles, 27 home runs, 95 RBIs and 14 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 159 hits with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs along with 32 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 181 hits with 30 doubles, 4 triples, 8 home runs and 61 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 116 hits with 16 home runs and 67 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 30 doubles and 20 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 28 doubles, 19 home runs and 71 RBIs as well this season.

Chicago Cubs Recap

The Chicago Cubs come into the postseason after finishing with an overall record of 92-70 this season. 

Cubs In First Non-Covid Postseason Since 2018

Ian Happ has 138 hits with 32 doubles, 23 home runs and 79 RBIs. Kyle Tucker has 133 hits including 25 doubles, 4 triples, 22 home runs and 73 RBIs while Seiya Suzuki also has 140 hits with 31 doubles and 32 home runs and 103 RBIs of his own. Pete Crow-Armstrong also has contributed 146 hits, 37 doubles, 4 triples, 31 home runs and 95 RBIs as well this season. Dansby Swanson has added 24 home runs and 77 RBIs, while also having 168 strikeouts and Suzuki has 164 strikeouts so far this season. Crow-Armstrong also has a team-high 35 stolen bases while Nico Hoerner has 29 stolen bases this season. Tucker’s also added 25 stolen bases while Michael Busch has also chipped in 25 doubles, 5 triples, 34 home runs and 90 RBIs this season.

San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 30, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season: 14-8      ERA: 3.21
• Home Record: 12-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games against the Cubs following a win.
• The home team has won five of the Padres’ last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last five games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.87
• Road Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-2

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last four playoff games as favorites.
• The Padres have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games as home favorites.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four playoff games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine home playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 Tuesday games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Cubs’ last six day games against NL West opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in each of the Cubs’ last four games.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded a Double in three of his last four playoff appearances with the Padres as underdogs.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction

I’m on the Padres here. I just think the Padres are in prime position for an upset here, as the Cubs’ starters have been faltering down the stretch and that includes Matthew Boyd, who really just was not doing well to close out the year. He’s been great at Wrigley Field this season, but I just don’t see any way to get on board with him and even if he has a decent outing, the Padres have a significant edge in my eyes in the bullpen as well. I think the Padres have a great amount of value here. Give me San Diego.