San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Wednesday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Casey Mize for his Padres debut and Mize is 4-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 85 strikeouts this season. Mitch Bratt will start for the Diamondbacks and is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA and 12 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 9-4 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday to improve to 59-55 this season. After this series, the Padres will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Padres Win 4 Of Last 5

Jackson Merrill has 100 hits with 18 doubles, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 68 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 43 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 122 hits with 22 doubles, 8 home runs and 49 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 81 hits with 10 doubles, 9 home runs and 40 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 23 home runs and 65 RBIs as well on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of the Padres on Tuesday to slip to 60-54 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will take on the Dodgers in a series at home.

Diamondbacks Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Corbin Carroll has 100 hits including 22 doubles, 12 triples, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs. Ketel Marte has 109 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs and 62 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 92 hits, with 14 doubles, 4 triples, 9 home runs and 41 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 88 hits with 20 doubles, 15 home runs and 51 RBIs and Gabriel Moreno has 89 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 47 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 88 hits with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs and 51 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: August 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Bratt      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 5.23
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Padres: –

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 18 of their last 20 games as favorites following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last four games as underdogs against the Padres at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against the Padres at Chase Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize      Record this season: 4-6      ERA: 2.70
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six Wednesday night home games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have won nine of their last 11 games.
• The Padres have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 road games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games at Chase Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres’ last five road games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Padres’ last six road games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the last six night games between the Padres and Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Tim Tawa has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• James McCann has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only 10 players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with the Padres as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Casey Mize has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T8th in the league in Hits (123) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (771).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (116).
• The Padres rank 25th in the league for hits this season (888).

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the under in this game. I still don’t think that the Padres are going to have a ton of offensive outbursts against lefties like they did against Eduardo Rodriguez on Tuesday, and Mitch Bratt was solid in his lone home start this season. I think the Diamondbacks could struggle against Mize here and all in all I think this is a low-scoring battle so give me the under.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 9