San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 08/04/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 4^th at the Chase Field in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 53-59 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 26-28 home record and are 53-51 in over/under They are coming off a 6-4 road victory over the A’s, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games and are playing the Rangers and the Rockies next.

The Diamondbacks have a .249 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .435 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Geraldo Perdomo leads the Diamondbacks with 113 hits, while Josh Naylor is the team’s best hitter with a .292 batting average. Eugenio Suarez leads the team in RBI, with 87 and in home runs with 36.

Brandon Pfaadt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 10-7 record, 5.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 62-50 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 26-31 road record, and are 46-63 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 7-3 home victory over the Cardinals, and are 7-1 in their last 8 games. They are playing the Red Sox and the Giants next. 

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .381 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 129 hits and team-high .299 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 72, adding a team-high 20 home runs. 

JP Sears (R) will take the mound for the Padres, making his first start with his new team. He has a 7-9 record, 4.95 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Padres.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 16 games as favorites following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in four of their last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the last six games between the Padres and Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last six night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games as road favorites against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (26).
• The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.435).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (834).
• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (95).

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 overall meetings, but the Diamondbacks are 4-3 in their seven meetings this season, having won their previous series in Arizona by 2-1 wins. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.

In this San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, the Padresare coming as -140 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, but both teams have exactly 26 home/away wins. Both pitchers have been in poor form lately, but Pfaadt has been good at home for the Dbacks, with a 2.68 home ERA. The Dbacks also have a better offense and I expect them to get to Sears, so I like the value of the home team as an underdog in this matchup. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks at home for plus money.