Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 21st at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 85-70 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 11-7 and 6-3. In their game two win, Boston was tied at three in the seventh inning, but scored three runs in the ninth for the victory. The Red Sox recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Lowe, Story, Bregman, Yoshida, and Gonzalez, who all had one RBI in the win. Boston started Harrison, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Whitlock got the win and Chapman picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Athletics and two out of three against the Yankees. Boston has won three of their last four games and they are third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 762 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 25 home runs and 95 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Connelly Early, who is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 10.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 75-80 this season after they lost game two by a score of 6-3 on Saturday night. Tampa Bay managed to erase a late 3-1 deficit, but gave up three in the ninth for the tough loss. The Rays recorded seven hits and they committed three errors in the game, while they were led by Fortes, Mangum, and Diaz, who all had one RBI in the loss. TB started Houser, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Scholtens picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays split four games with the Blue Jays and lost two out of three against the Cubs. Tampa Bay has lost eight of their last eleven games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 689 runs with a .251 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 44 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 29 home runs and 80 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Joe Boyle, who is 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 42.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays

The Red Sox have won each of their last six road games against AL East opponents.
The Rays have lost eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The road team has covered the run line in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against American League opponents following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Red Sox’s last three night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Three of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as road favorites against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Rays’ last seven night games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in five of his last 13 home appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
Yandy Diaz has recorded two or more hits in each of the Rays’ last six night games.
Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Yandy Diaz ranks 4th in the league in Hits (172) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in two of his last three road appearances against the Rays.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites against the Rays.
Connor Wong has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Rays rank 27th in the league for walks this season (448).
The Rays are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.254).
The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 

Boston has done a good job of pulling away in the later innings in this series, as they continue to battle for seeding in the wild card race. The Red Sox are 39-38 on the road this year, while the Rays are 40-40 at home. Tampa Bay is starting Boyle, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. The Sox are going with Early, who has allowed one earned run in 10.1 innings against the Athletics this year. Take Boston to get another win here, as I still can’t trust Boyle on the mound.