Rays vs Astros Prediction 7/3/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 3rd at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 51-33 this year after they swept the Royals in three games by scores of 10-4, 4-0, and 5-2. In game three, Tampa Bay trailed 1-0 in the first inning, but they scored the next five runs to get the victory. The Rays recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Mullins, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Seymour allowed three hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Baker got the save. Prior to that series, Tampa Bay swept the Diamondbacks in three games and split four games with the Royals. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.72 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while they have scored 385 runs with a .261 batting average and a .339 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 13 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 24 home runs and 54 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 94.2 innings pitched this year. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 43-46 this season after they lost two out of three against the Twins by scores of 4-5, 6-4, and 3-8. In game three, Houston cut the deficit to 2-1 in the first inning, but they allowed the next five runs for the loss. The Astros recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Allen, who went 1-3 with one RBI. Imai allowed four hits and five earned runs over 1.1 innings for the loss, while Pearson allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Houston won three out of four against the Tigers and two out of three against the Blue Jays. 

This season, Houston has a 4.77 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 400 runs with a .242 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 26 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 19 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti, who is 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 72.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last six home games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Rays have lost each of their last six night games against the Astros at Daikin Park following a road win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games at Daikin Park following a home loss.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games against the Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Astros’ last 11 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Astros’ last eight night games against AL East opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Spencer Arrighetti has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Cedric Mullins has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances.
• Jonathan Aranda has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last eight games against AL opponents.
• Nick Martinez has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.

Rays vs Astros Prediction

Tampa Bay rolls into this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The Rays are 20-21 on the road this year, while the Astros are 21-23 at home. Houston has won three of their last five games and they have scored 6+ runs in each of those three wins. The Astros are starting Arrighetti, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in four of his last five starts, while Martinez has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five starts. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 8