Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/31/25 MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the San Diego Padres on Saturday, May 31st at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Padres having the 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 32-23 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 19-9 home record, and are 23-30 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 3-2 home victory over the Pirates, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games, and are playing the Giants and the Brewers next. 

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 64 hits and team-high .314 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 34, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 13 home runs. 

Dylan Cease (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-3 record, 4.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He has been better at home, with a 3.29 ERA across five home starts. He has given up six runs across 12 innings pitched in his last two starts, and in his previous start against the Pirates this season, he gave up 2 runs in 4 innings of work. Dylan Cease has a record of 1-0 with an ERA of 2.87 and 14 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Pirates in his career.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 21-37 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have an 8-21 road record, and are 22-33 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 road defeat against the Padres, and saw their two-game winning streak getting snapped. They are playing the Phillies and the Astros next.

The Pirates have a .226 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .335 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 50 hits, and a team-high 32 RBI. Andrew McCutchen is the team’s best hitter with a .259 batting average.

Bailey Falter (L) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 3-3 record, 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has been weaker on the road, with a 5.09 ERA across five road starts, and he has been in excellent form lately, with just five earned runs in 31.4 innings pitched across his last five starts. In his previous start against the Pirates this season, he gave up one run in 7 innings of work. Bailey Falter with an ERA of 3.38 and 10 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Padres in his career.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 12 night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday road games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road night games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Padres have lost six of their last nine games as favorites.
• The Pirates have won six of their last nine games as underdogs against the Padres following a road loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Padres following a road loss.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Padres’ last six games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the Pirates’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five road games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (382).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (411).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.335).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (185).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres have won their last ten meetings against the Pirates, and are a perfect 4-0 this season, outscoring them by 18-7 runs. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.  

In this Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -220 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and have been very strong at home, while the Pirates have been terrible on the road. The Pirates are putting one of their best pitchers on the mound in Bailey Falter and he has been excellent lately, while Cease has been underwhelming this season for the Padres. The Pirates are better against righties, while the Padres are weaker against lefties, so I think that the Pirates can keep this one close, especially with Falter on the mound. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates by +1 run in the first 5 innings.