Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 8/31/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Mitch Keller here and Keller is 6-12 with a 4.35 ERA and 125 strikeouts this season. In his career, Keller is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will trot out Lucas Giolito here and Giolito is 9-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 99 strikeouts this season. In his last 5 starts against the Pirates, Giolito is 1-0 with a 4.94 ERA and 31 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to add on to their 10-3 win over Boston from Saturday’s matchup to sit at 61-76 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head home for a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Pirates Win 8 Of Their Last 10

Bryan Reynolds has 122 hits with 34 doubles, 14 home runs and 66 RBIs while also posting 148 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 18 home runs and 52 RBIs with 35 stolen bases while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 105 hits with 20 doubles and 15 stolen bases. Cruz also has a team-high 149 strikeouts as well this season. Tommy Pham has 14 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 96 hits with 19 doubles as well this season.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last nine games between the Pirates and Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five games as home favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Pirates and Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit at least one home run in four of the Pirates’ last seven games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Joey Bart has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 4th in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Pirates on Saturday to fall to 75-62 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will welcome the Cleveland Guardians to town for a series. 

Red Sox Drop Back-To-Back Games

Alex Bregman has 98 hits including 24 doubles along with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 130 hits with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and 23 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 134 hits with 34 doubles, 12 triples, 13 home runs, 73 RBIs and a team-high 22 stolen bases. Roman Anthony’s added 69 hits with 18 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 22 home runs with 69 RBIs and 6 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 15 homers, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 55 RBIs and 19 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 12 Sunday day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last nine games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a win.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in five of the Red Sox’s last six games against NL Central opponents at Fenway Park.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox here. The Red Sox have been playing some solid baseball and I understand what he Pirates could be worth a look, but I don’t love this matchup for Mitch Keller, who has been struggling in some of his recent outings and I think the Red Sox avoid the sweep here. Give me Boston here.