Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/28/25 MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, May 28th at the Chase Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction. We will examine:

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks game

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 27-28 record this season and are sitting in 4th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 14-14 home record and are 23-27 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-9 home defeat by the Pirates, and are 1-6 in their last 7 games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last 7 games, and they are playing the Braves and the Nationals next.

The Diamondbacks have a .256 batting average this season, a .333 OBP, and a .448 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Diamondbacks with 58 hits, while Geraldo Perdomo is the team’s best hitter with a .296 batting average. Eugenio Suarez leads the team in RBI, with 41, and Corbin Carroll adds a team-high 15 home runs.

Zac Gallen (R) will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 3-6 record, 5.25 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. He has been weaker at home, with a 6.03 ERA across seven home starts, and he has given up 4+ runs in each of his last three starts. Zac Gallen is 3-2 with an ERA of 3.34 and 25 strikeouts in 5 appearances versus the Pirates in his career.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 20-36 record this season and are sitting in last place in the NL Central. They have a 7-20 road record, and are 21-32 in over/under. They are coming off a 9-6 road victory over the Dbacks, which ended their previous two-game losing streak. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games are playing the Padres and the Astros next.

The Pirates have a .225 batting average this season, a .305 OBP, and a .334 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 47 hits, adding a team-high 30 RBI. Andrew McCutchen is the team’s best hitter with a .261 batting average.

Paul Skenes (R) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 3-5 record, 2.36 ERA, and 0.95 WHIP. He has been better on the road, with a 1.40 ERA across six road starts, and he has been on fire lately, with one earned run in each of his last three starts, across 20 innings pitched. In his only previous start against the D-backs last season, he gave up 2 runs in 5.1 innings of work.  

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last 13 day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won six of their last seven Wednesday games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have covered the run line each of their last four day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Pirates’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as favorites against the Pirates have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Pirates’ last seven games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (109).
• The Diamondbacks rank T4th in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (173).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (168).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 8-4 in their last 12 meetings against the Pirates, and 5-3 in their last 8 meetings in Arizona. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, the Diamondbacks are coming as -130 home favorites. The Dbacks are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and the Pirates have been horrendous on the road. The Dbacks have been mediocre at home and have a weaker bullpen, and they put Zac Gallen on the mound, who has been struggling mightily this season. On the other hand, Skenes looks sharp this season and has been in excellent form. I expect Skenes to keep the Dbacks’ bats at bay, so I like the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline in the first 5 innings of this game.