Pirates vs Reds Prediction 9/25/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 25th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 69-89 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-2 and 4-3. In their game two win, Pittsburgh blew a 2-0 lead, but they managed to get the win in 11 innings. The Pirates recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Horwitz, who went 3-5 with three RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Skenes, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Ramirez got the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Athletics, but lost all three against the Cubs before that. Pittsburgh has won four games in a row and they are last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 569 runs with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 20 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 16 home runs and 73 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 4-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 65.1 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 80-78 this season after they lost game two by a score of 4-3 on Wednesday night. Cincinnati erased a late 2-0 deficit, but failed to score in the 11th inning for the heartbreaking loss. The Reds recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Stephenson, Lux, and Marte, who all had one RBI in the loss. Cincinnati started Greene, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Martinez picked up the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Reds swept the Cubs in four games and won two out of three against the Cardinals. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games and they are third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 702 runs with a .244 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 21 home runs and 85 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 21 home runs and 74 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 8-8 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 149.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Reds

The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Pirates and Reds.
The Reds have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Pirates following a loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight day games at Great American Ball Park following an extra innings loss.
The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Reds.
The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.
The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Fifteen of the Reds’ last 17 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Pirates’ last five games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Pirates’ last six day games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Spencer Steer has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his four previous appearances with the Reds as favorites against the Pirates.
Tyler Stephenson has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances at Great American Ball Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Thursday day appearances with his team as a favorite.
Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

Joey Bart has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two day games.
Tommy Pham has recorded a hit in each of his last six appearances against former teams.
Jack Suwinski has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Pirates vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati came into this series needing to continue their winning streak in order to push for a wild card spot, but they have picked up two losses instead. The Reds are 44-36 at home this season, while the Pirates are 25-52 on the road. Pittsburgh has won four games in a row and they are starting Ashcraft, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings, but hasn’t pitched more than four innings in any of his last four. The Reds are starting Lodolo, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. I want to back the Reds in this game, but I just can’t get there. Take the Pirates to win again.