Pirates vs Reds Prediction 3/31/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, March 31st at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-3 this season after they lost to the Reds in game one of this series by a score of 2-0 on Monday. Pittsburgh allowed both runs in the fourth inning and their offense never woke up in the shutout loss. The Pirates recorded four hits in the game and they were led by O’Hearn, who went 1-2 with two walks. Ashcraft allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Mattson and Lawrence combined for two scoreless innings. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.25 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while they have scored 13 runs with a .223 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with three home runs and four RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added one home run and three RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Bubba Chandler, who went 4-1 with a 4.02 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 31.1 innings pitched last season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 3-1 this year after they won game one by a score of 2-0 to open the series. Cincinnati didn’t gather many hits, but they scored twice in the fourth and pitched very well in the win. The Reds recorded four hits and they were led by Steer and Benson, who both had one RBI in the game. Burns allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Phillips picked up the save. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 2.37 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .225 opponent batting average, while they have scored 11 runs with a .194 batting average and a .295 on base percentage. Eugenio Suarez has led the Reds with one home run and four RBIs, while Sal Stewart has added one home run and two RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Brandon Williamson, who went 0-0 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 14.1 innings pitched in 2024. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last four games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven Tuesday night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five night games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine Tuesday night games against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 16 night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds’ last six night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven games between the Pirates and Reds.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last nine night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against NL opponents.

Pirates vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati was able to get the shutout win to open this series, but they have scored just 11 runs through four games. The Reds are starting Williamson, who has only pitched 14.1 innings over the last two years. Pittsburgh has scored two runs or fewer in two of their last three games and they have gone to extra innings in two of their last three. The Pirates are starting Chandler, who only pitched 31.1 innings last year, but he had an elite WHIP in the limited action. I think I trust Chandler a bit more than Williamson, so I will take the Pirates to get the win here.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML