Pirates vs Phillies Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 16th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-29 this year after they lost two out of three against the Mets by scores of 3-4, 1-2, and 4-0. In their game three win, Pittsburgh scored two runs in the second inning and added two more in the fifth inning for the shutout victory. The Pirates recorded nine hits in the game, and they were led by Gorski and Triolo, who both had two RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Falter, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 3.2 innings, while Shugart picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Braves, but did lose all three against the Cardinals before that. Pittsburgh has split its last six games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 135 runs with a .220 batting average and a .301 on-base percentage this season. Bryan Reynolds has led Pittsburgh with five home runs and 20 RBIs, while Andrew McCutchen has added three home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Andrew Heaney, who is 2-3 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 45.2 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 25-18 this season after they lost two out of three against the Cardinals by scores of 2-3, 2-1, and 7-14. In their game three loss, Philadelphia led 5-1 after the first inning and tied the game at six in the third, but they fell apart after that for the loss. The Phillies recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Castellanos and Realmuto, who both had two RBIs in the loss. Philadelphia started Nola, who allowed 12 hits and nine earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while Walker and Hernandez both allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Guardians and all three against the Rays. Philadelphia has won six of its last nine games, and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 202 runs with a .257 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 15 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added seven home runs and 23 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 10.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Pirates

• The Phillies have won each of their last 11 home games following a home loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six road games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five night games against National League opponents following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents at Citizens Bank Park.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded six strikeouts in three of his last four appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last six games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Kepler has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jared Triolo has scored a run in each of the Pirates’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Pirates’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

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Pirates vs Phillies Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup looking to get on a rare winning streak, but they will be on the road, where they are just 6-16 this year. The Pirates are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the MLB, and they are facing Suarez, who was great in his last start against Cleveland. Philadelphia has been the much better team in this matchup, and they are facing Falter, who has allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.