Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 8/17/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 17th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 52-72 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 1-3. In their game two loss, Pittsburgh led 1-0 in the fourth inning, but failed to score over the last five innings in the defeat. The Pirates recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Pham, who went 1-3 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Pittsburgh started Burrows, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings, while Sisk picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost all three against the Brewers and split four games with the Reds. Pittsburgh has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 436 runs with a .231 batting average and a .303 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz (IL) has led Pittsburgh with 18 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 13 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 2-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 75.0 innings pitched this year. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 69-53 this season after they won game two by a score of 3-1 on Saturday afternoon. Chicago was able to tie the game in the bottom of the fourth and they scored twice in the eighth to seal the victory. The Cubs recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Suzuki, Kelly, and Hoerner, who all had one RBI in the win. Chicago started Imanaga, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Kittredge picked up the win and Keller got the save. 

Prior to this series, the Cubs lost two out of three against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Cardinals. Chicago has lost four of their last six games and they are second in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 610 runs with a .252 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Seiya Suzuki has led Chicago with 27 home runs and 86 RBIs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has added 27 home runs and 79 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Javier Assad, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP over 4.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Cubs will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last four road games after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have won each of their last six Sunday day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four day games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in seven of his last 14 appearances with the Cubs as favorites against the Pirates.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last nine day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jack Suwinski has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Cubs.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.

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Pirates vs Cubs Prediction

Chicago was able to get a much needed win on Saturday in game two of this series, but they are still way back in the race for the Central. The Cubs are 37-23 at home this year, while the Pirates are 18-43 on the road. Pittsburgh has the worst offense in the MLB, which should be good news for Assad, who is making his second appearance of the year due to injury. The Pirates will start Mlodzinski, who should only go 2-3 innings. I think this sets up nicely for Assad to have a bounce back effort, so take the Cubs -1.5 here.