Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 7/31/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 31st in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 53-56 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL East. They have a 29-27 home record and are coming off a 10-9 road win against the Tigers. They will face the Angels and the Rangers next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .237 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the team’s best hitter with a .249 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 67 and adding a team-high 22 home runs.

Brandon Young (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles, and he has a 8-2 record, 3.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 57-52 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 29-25 away record and are coming off a 6-8 road loss against the Marlins. They will face the Nationals and the Blue Jays next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 64, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team-high 33 home runs.

The Phillies have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: July 31, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young      Record this season: 8-2      ERA: 3.13
• Home Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last six night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards after going to extra innings.
• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Phillies following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against the Orioles following a loss.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against NL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13 night games following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a road loss.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last three road games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Phillies’ last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Orioles’ last nine home games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games as underdogs.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Young has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a favorite against the Phillies.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against the Phillies.
• Taylor Ward ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.383) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a losing record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Friday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (423).
• The Orioles rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (423).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Phillies vs Orioles Prediction

The Phillies are 5-3 in their last 8 meetings against the Orioles but have lost their last two visits in Baltimore.

In this Phillies vs Orioles Prediction, the Orioles are coming as -125 home favorites. I like the Orioles at home with Brandon Young who has given up just one run in his last two starts and has been excellent at home with a 2.85 ERA. The Orioles have both a better offense and their bullpen has been excellent after the break and will be facing a struggling Phillies team that is just 1-7 in its last 8 games and was swept by the Marlins in its previous series. Take the Orioles in this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML