Orioles vs Yankees Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 75-86 this season after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 4-8 and 1-6. In their game two loss, Baltimore allowed the first six runs in the game and never had a chance to win. The Orioles recorded three hits in the game and they were led by Mayo, who went 1-2 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Baltimore started Sugano, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Wolfram allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Rays, but lost three out of four against the Yankees before that. Baltimore has lost five of their last seven games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 675 runs with a .235 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Kyle Bradish, who is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 28.0 innings pitched this season. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 93-68 this year after they won game two by a score of 6-1 on Saturday afternoon. New York scored in the first inning and led the whole way, but lost the shutout in the eighth. The Yankees recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Judge, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. New York started Schlittler, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Blackburn closed out the game. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees swept the White Sox in three games and won three out of four against the Orioles. New York has won seven games in a row and they are second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 846 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 29 home runs and 98 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Gil, who is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 52.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Orioles 

The Yankees have won each of their last eight games at Yankee Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
The Orioles have lost 12 of their last 13 games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against AL East opponents.
The Orioles have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against American League opponents.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against AL East opponents.

Why the Orioles will beat the Yankees 

The Orioles have won 12 of their last 18 games as underdogs against the Yankees following a loss.
The Orioles have covered the run line in 13 of their last 16 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 19 of their last 25 home games against AL East opponents following a win.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Yankees’ last six day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Orioles’ last five games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last five road games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Orioles and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

Giancarlo Stanton has hit at least one home run in each of the Yankees’ last three games at Yankee Stadium against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

Kyle Bradish has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against AL opponents.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances at Yankee Stadium.
Kyle Bradish has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances against AL opponents.
Tyler O’Neill has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances at Yankee Stadium.

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction 

New York extended their winning streak to seven games on Saturday afternoon, but they still trail Toronto in the AL East standings. The Yankees are 49-31 at home this year, while the Orioles are 36-44 on the road. Baltimore has allowed 5+ runs in four straight games, but they are starting Bradish, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. New York is going with Gil, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the under in this contest.