Orioles vs Reds Prediction 7/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 5th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 42-48 this season after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-0 and 8-5. In game two, Baltimore trailed 4-3 in the second inning, but they scored the next five runs to get the win. The Orioles recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Basallo, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Young allowed eight hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Wells picked up the save. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three against the White Sox and two out of three against the Nationals. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.35 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .254 opponent batting average, while they have scored 414 runs with a .238 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Pete Alonso has led the Orioles with 19 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 39 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Kyle Bradish, who is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 93.0 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 40-48 this year after they lost game two by a score of 5-8 on Saturday night. Cincinnati erased an early 3-0 deficit to take the lead, but they only scored one run over the last seven innings for the loss. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Suarez, who went 2-5 with two RBIs. Greene allowed seven hits and eight earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Lowder threw three innings in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost three out of four against the Brewers, but did win two out of three against the Pirates before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.60 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while they have scored 369 runs with a .228 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 17 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 13 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won 16 of their last 17 day games at Great American Ball Park following a home loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last three day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six day games at Great American Ball Park following a loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last six games at Great American Ball Park.
• The road team has won nine of the last 10 games between the Orioles and Reds.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last six games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last five games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Reds’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Orioles’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Orioles’ last six road games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Reds’ last nine games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Sal Stewart has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three day games.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances against AL opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Samuel Basallo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last nine games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Samuel Basallo has hit at least one home run in each of the Orioles’ last three road games against opponents that held a losing record.

Orioles vs Reds Prediction

Baltimore comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak and they have scored 17 runs in those three wins. The Orioles are 18-25 on the road this year, while the Reds are 19-24 at home. Cincinnati has lost four of their last five games and they are really falling back in the NL Central standings. The Reds are starting Lodolo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, while Bradish has allowed 3, 0, 1, 5, and 5 earned runs in his last five starts. Take the Reds at home here.

David Racey's Pick: Reds ML