Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 8/18/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 18th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 57-67 this season after they won two out of three against Houston by scores of 7-0, 4-5, and 12-0. In their game three win, Baltimore jumped out to a lead in the third inning and pulled away in the blowout victory. The Orioles recorded 14 hits in the game and they were led by Westburg, who went 4-5 with one home run and five RBIs in the win. Baltimore started Kremer, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Wolfram and Martin finished the shutout. 

Prior to that series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Mariners, but did lose two out of three against the Athletics before that. Baltimore has won four of their last five games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.69 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .262 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 537 runs with a .240 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 14 home runs and 55 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers, who is 5-2 with a 1.43 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP over 69.1 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 68-57 this year after they won two out of three against Miami by scores of 2-1, 7-5, and 3-5. In their game three loss, Boston led 3-1 in the seventh inning, but their bullpen fell apart in the last two innings for the loss. The Red Sox recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Abreu, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Boston started Crochet, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Weissert blew the save and picked up the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Astros and two out of three against the Padres. Boston has won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 626 runs with a .253 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 19 home runs and 79 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Dustin May, who is 7-8 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 113.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Orioles

• The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 home games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last four road games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last five home games following a home loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against American League opponents following a road win.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles’ last six games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six road games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three night games between the Orioles and Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last five home games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five games against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Carlson has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Orioles against AL opponents.
• Jordan Westburg has recorded two or more hits in each of his last five appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs.

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Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this matchup having a very disappointing season, but they have played better recently and are trying to catch the Rays for fourth in the East. The Orioles are 27-37 on the road this year, while the Red Sox are 41-23 at home. Boston is in danger of getting passed by the Yankees and they are starting May, who has allowed three earned runs and 11 hits over 9.2 innings since coming over from LA. The O’s are starting Rogers, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight outings. I know Baltimore has the better starter, but May has been serviceable and I just don’t trust this Baltimore team. Take the Sox here.