New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Sunday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Max Fried here and Fried was 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 189 strikeouts in the regular season. Trey Yesavage will start this game for Toronto and was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 16 strikeouts in the regular season.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from a 10-1 loss at the hands of the Blue Jays in Saturday’s game one last time out.

Yankees Looking To Even Series Going Back Home

Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 179 hits including 53 home runs, 114 RBIs, 30 doubles and a .331 batting average along with 12 stolen bases. Anthony Volpe’s also had 32 doubles with 18 stolen bases, 19 home runs and 72 RBIs while Jasson Dominguez has added 18 doubles of his own. Paul Goldschmidt has 134 hits with 31 doubles and a .274 batting average while Volpe also has 150 strikeouts so far this season. Ben Rice also has 119 hits with 28 doubles, 26 home runs and 65 RBIs while Cody Bellinger has 29 homers with 98 RBIs and Austin Wells has 21 home runs and 71 RBIs with Bellinger logging 25 doubles and Wells chipping in 22 doubles. Trent Grisham also has 34 home runs and 74 RBIs and Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 31 home runs and 80 RBIs so far this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to add on to their series opening win on Saturday to take the 1-0 series lead.

Blue Jays Trying To Take 2-0 Lead

George Springer has 154 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 32 home runs, a triple, 27 doubles and 84 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 69 hits with 11 doubles and 7 home runs and 35 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 34 doubles and 84 RBIs while Springer also has a .309 batting average and 111 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 32 doubles with 21 home runs and 74 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 35 doubles as part of his 151 hits this season.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: October 5, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Trey Yesavage      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 3.21
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Yankees: –

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last eight games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Fried      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 19-5      ERA: 2.77
• Road Record: 11-3
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 3-1

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
• The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight playoff games.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last six games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight playoff games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against the Blue Jays.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Fourteen of the Yankees’ last 15 games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the last 14 games between the Yankees and Blue Jays at Rogers Centre have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four day games at Rogers Centre.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Blue Jays’ last seven games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last three games.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four playoff games as road favorites.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last four road appearances.
• Anthony Volpe has recorded a hit in each of the Yankees’ last nine playoff games as favorites.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Max Fried ranks 1st in the league for Wins (19) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the Blue Jays here. I get the case to be made for the Yankees with Fried on the bump as Fried’s expected to be the staff ace, but Toronto looked really solid offensively in the opener and I think they can get another one here as the Jays have been finding ways to win the same way they did in Saturday’s opener. This price is too good to pass on with how Toronto has performed at home this season and I think Toronto gets it done here. Give me the Blue Jays.