New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 7/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Yankees vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, July 9th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 54‑36 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 33‑13 home record and are coming off a 3‑0 home win against the Yankees. They will face the Mariners and the Red Sox next.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .257 batting average this season, .334 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .327 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 61, while Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 26 home runs.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has a 7‑4 record, 2.78 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

New York Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees have a 50‑42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the AL East. They have a 27‑22 away record and are coming off a 0‑3 road loss against the Rays. They will face the Nationals and the Dodgers next.

The New York Yankees have a .234 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .419 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Ben Rice is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI with 60, adding a team‑high 26 home runs.

The Yankees have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: July 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 2.78
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Yankees: 2-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 13 games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last six day games after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Yankees have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 games as favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The underdogs have won six of the Yankees’ last nine games at Tropicana Field.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four Thursday games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last nine day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Rays’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Yankees’ last six day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last five games between the Yankees and Rays.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last four road games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances against the Yankees at Tropicana Field.
• Hunter Feduccia has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Drew Rasmussen is one of only four pitchers to record 90+ Strikeouts and 20 or less Walks this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Ben Rice has hit a home run in two of the Yankees’ last three games.
• Ben Rice has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight road games against the Rays.
• Jazz Chisholm ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (26) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (644).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (238).
• The Yankees rank T1st in the league for home runs this season (132).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.40).

Yankees vs Rays Prediction

The Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Yankees and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Tampa.

In this Yankees vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -155 home favorites. The Yankees have been struggling with a 2-9 record in their last 11 games and have lost back-to-back games in this series. They will be facing Drew Rasmussen who has shut them down twice this season and have been elite at home with a 5-2 record and a 2.53, while the Yankees are just 24th against right-handed pitching in the month of July. Take the Rays to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML