New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 7/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 21st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 63-37 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 33-18 home record and are coming off an 8-3 home win against the Mets. They will face the Rockies and the Giants next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .253 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Garrett Mitchell is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 61, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 18 home runs.

Brandon Sproat (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 3-4 record, 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 42-59 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 21-31 away record and are coming off a 3-8 road loss against the Brewers. They will face the Dodgers and the Braves next.

The New York Mets have a .233 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average, leads the team in RBI with 52, and adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Zac Thornton (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the New York Mets, and he has a 0-1 record, 2.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: July 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Sproat      Record this season: 3-4      ERA: 5.16
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
• The home team has won each of the Brewers’ last seven games.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight Tuesday night games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last 13 Tuesday games as home favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zach Thornton      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 2.60
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Brewers: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Brewers have lost four of their last five Tuesday games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have won each of their last three road games following a loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against the Brewers following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Mets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Brewers’ last five games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of Brandon Sproat’s last eight appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Sproat has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Andrew Vaughn has hit a home run in seven of his last nine appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Brewers.
• Carson Benge has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.407) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
• The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Mets vs Brewers Prediction

The Brewers have won their last four meetings against the Mets, all of them in Milwaukee. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Mets vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -140 home favorites. I like the Brewers in this one at home in a decent price, as they have won four straight and have been one of the best home teams in baseball. The Mets are going for a bullpen game and their relievers have been struggling mightily lately, ranking just 28th in the last 10 games. Sproat has been in good form for the Brewers, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML