New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28th at the loanDepot park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 78-83 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 37-43 home record and are 81-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-5 home defeat by the Mets, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Their last three games have gone under the total. 

The Marlins have a .250 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .393 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 157 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.

Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 7-7 record, 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have an 83-78 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 34-46 road record and are 76-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-0 road win over the Marlins, but are 3-4 in their last 7 games. 

The Mets have a .249 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .428 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 171 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .273. He also adds a team-high 126 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 43 home runs.

Sean Manaea (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2-4 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera      Record this season: 7-7      ERA: 3.66
• Home Record: 5-3
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last 10 Sunday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 5.80
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The road team has won nine of the Marlins’ last 12 games.
• The road team has covered the run line in eight of the Marlins’ last 10 games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mets’ last nine games as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets’ last five games as road favorites.
• Sean Manaea has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 22 games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (154).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1241).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (149).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Mets, but the Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Miami. Their last three meetings have gone under the total.

In this Mets vs Marlins Prediction, the Mets are coming as -120 road favorites. This is a do-or-die game for the Mets, who are tied with the Reds for the final Wild Card spot of the NL, and need only a win and a Reds loss in order to get to the playoffs. I don’t trust Manaea to lead the Mets to victory, especially on the road, as he has been atrocious on the road this season, with a 7.09 ERA, and coming into this matchup in terrible form, with a 7.71 ERA in his last 5 starts. Cabrera has been excellent at home for the Marlins, with a 2.91 home ERA. I like the value here with the home dog, so take the Marlins on the moneyline for plus money.