New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 7/3/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Braves Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 3rd in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 50‑35 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 25‑16 home record and are coming off an 11‑5 home defeat against the Cardinals. They will face the Pirates and the Cardinals next.

The Braves have a .246 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.49 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team‑high 20 home runs.

Grant Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4‑4 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 36‑51 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑27 road record and are coming off a 9‑3 road defeat against the Blue Jays. They will face the Royals and the Red Sox next.

The Mets have a .229 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average, also adding a team‑high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 46.

Christian Scott (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2‑0 record, 3.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: July 3, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes      Record this season: 4-4      ERA: 3.96
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-1

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 15 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The favorites have won each of the Mets’ last eight games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games at Truist Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Christian Scott      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 3.20
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Braves: 0-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won six of the Braves’ last eight games at Truist Park.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games as road underdogs against the Braves.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Braves have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against the Braves.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last three night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last four games between the Mets and Braves at Truist Park.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Mauricio Dubon has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Grant Holmes has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as favorites against NL opponents.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 home appearances against the Mets.
• Matt Olson ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Carson Benge has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs.
• Christian Scott has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances.
• Francisco Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.554) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.49).
• The Braves rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (105).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).

Mets vs Braves Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Nationals are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Washington.

In this Mets vs Braves Prediction, the Nationals are coming as -140 home favorites. Both teams have been struggling lately, as they both are 2-8 in their last 10 games but I am with the Braves at home in this one. Neither pitcher stands out but the Braves have the best bullpen in baseball and they have a superior offense, ranking 9th in the league while the Mets are just 28th. Take the Braves to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Atlanta Braves ML