MLB Player Prop Picks 6/13/25 MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Charlie Morton Under 15.5 Outs

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels 5:08 PM EST

Charlie Morton’s 2025 season with the Baltimore Orioles has been a turbulent one. Over 15 appearances, including 9 starts, he has posted a 2–7 record with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP across 56 innings. While his strikeout ability remains intact, tallying 57 strikeouts for a rate of about 9.17 K/9, he has struggled significantly with control and run prevention. These issues were especially pronounced early in the season, when Morton began the year 0–6 with a 10.36 ERA through his first six starts. Splits indicate that Morton has been more effective on the road (1.33 WHIP) than at home (1.77 WHIP). Even though Morton has shown some signs of light in his last few starts, he’s still a guy I want to fade any chance I get.

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Clay Holmes Under 2.5 Earned Runs

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays 5:10 PM EST

Clay Holmes has made an impressive transition from reliever to starter for the Mets in 2025. Through 13 starts, he boasts a solid 7–3 record complemented by a strong 2.95 ERA across 73.1 innings pitched, with 65 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP, ranking him among MLB’s top starters 24th in ERA and within the top 40 in WHIP. Since June 1, Holmes has elevated his performance further, going 2–0 with a 2.77 ERA over two starts, allowing just 3 runs on 3 hits in 13 innings, striking out 9 and earning both wins. After a strong performance last week, the Rays’ bats have returned back to baseline, only putting up a combined 4 runs in games 2-3 in their series against the Red Sox. I don’t see the Rays having much success at the plate in this one, facing Holmes, who has been very good at home this season. 

Luis Castillo Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians 10:10 PM EST

Once again, Luis Castillo has been a steady presence in the Seattle Mariners’ rotation. Through 13 starts, he holds a 4–4 record with a strong 3.31 ERA across 73.1 innings pitched. While not overpowering in terms of strikeouts, he has still managed to punch out 60 batters, good for a K/9 of about 7.4, while maintaining a WHIP of 1.30. Castillo’s command has remained solid, and his ability to limit runs has helped him remain an effective mid-rotation starter. Castillo is coming off his worst start of the season, where he gave up 4 earned runs to the Los Angeles Angels. Now he returns back to T-Mobile Park, which is a pitcher’s heaven. He also has a favorable matchup going against the Guardians, who rank in the bottom 10 in batting average, OPS, and total runs in the MLB. I expect Castillo to have a good outing in this one.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above