MLB Player Prop Picks 8/19/2025 Today’s MLB Picks (National League Pitchers)

Nick Pivetta Under 1.5 Earned Runs

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres 9:40 PM EST

Nick Pivetta has delivered an impressive season across 24 starts, accumulating a 12–4 record, a 2.87 ERA, and a stellar 0.95 WHIP over 141.1 innings, while striking out 144 batters. His consistency is reflected in his recent trends. Over his last 15 starts, he went 7–2 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, and in his last seven outings, he was 3–2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. He just faced this same Giants team back on 8/13, and in that game, he only allowed 1 earned run. This Giants lineup has been ice cold over the last 2 months, and I don’t see them improving in this one, going against Pivetta at Petco Park, which hasn’t been an easy ballpark to hit at. 

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Bryce Elder Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves 7:15 PM EST

Bryce Elder’s 2025 season with the Atlanta Braves has been a difficult one, as the right-hander has struggled to find consistency in the rotation. Through 20 starts, he holds a 5–9 record with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP across 107 innings, while striking out 87 batters. His recent outings have mirrored his season-long issues, as he posted ERAs above 6.00 over both his last 7 and last 15 appearances. Advanced metrics tell a similar story, with opposing hitters averaging 90 mph exit velocity and a 45.8% hard-hit rate against him, which has translated into a .360 wOBA allowed. His strikeout rate of 18.2% and walk rate of 8.6% fall below league-average levels, and his fastball velocity sits at a modest 91 mph, limiting his ability to overpower hitters. I understand he’s going against a weak White Sox lineup in this one, but I can’t help but continue to fade Bryce Elder as this season goes on. 

Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox 7:10 PM EST

Walker Buehler’s 2025 season with the Boston Red Sox has been a challenging one, defined by inconsistency and control struggles. Over 21 starts, he has compiled a 7–7 record with a 5.43 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 106 innings, recording 78 strikeouts. While he showed some effectiveness in a brief stretch, posting a 3.69 ERA across seven starts, longer stretches of difficulty, including a 5.97 ERA over 15 outings, have overshadowed those moments. Control issues and a decline in his ability to miss bats have been significant factors, and batted-ball metrics indicate that hitters are making solid contact, with his actual results closely reflecting the quality of that contact. Overall, this has been one of the more challenging campaigns of Buehler’s career, and I don’t see him improving against this Baltimore lineup.