MLB Player Prop Picks 8/19/2025 Today’s MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Joe Ryan Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Minnesota Twins vs Athletics 7:40 PM EST

Joe Ryan has been outstanding for the Minnesota Twins in the 2025 season, establishing himself as one of the most reliable starters in the American League. Through 24 games (23 starts), he owns a 12–5 record with a strong 2.72 ERA across 139 innings pitched. His command has been sharp, reflected in an elite 153-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP, the second-best mark in baseball. Ryan has consistently delivered length and effectiveness, going at least five innings in every outing and allowing more than two runs in just six of his starts. There’s not much to be happy about when it comes to the Twins, but Joe Ryan has been the most consistent piece on this team. 

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Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals 7:40 PM EST

Seth Lugo comes into this one posting an 8–6 record with a 3.77 ERA across 131.1 innings pitched. He has struck out 110 batters while maintaining a 1.24 WHIP, ranking in the middle tier of qualified starters in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Lugo’s season has been a tale of two halves—he was consistent early on, but since the All-Star break, he has struggled to limit damage, carrying a 7.42 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last 30.1 innings. In his last two starts, he gave up 7 earned runs against the Twins and 6 earned runs against the Nationals. Now he has to face a Rangers team that is fighting for its playoff hopes, and I expect them to get after Lugo early and often in this game. 

Shane Baz Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees 7:35 PM EST

Shane Baz’s 2025 season with the Tampa Bay Rays has been a mix of highs and lows, as the young right-hander continues to work his way into a consistent role in the rotation. Through 24 starts, he has posted an 8–9 record with a 4.93 ERA across 135 innings, striking out 140 batters while carrying a 1.33 WHIP. His performance has been uneven. While he has shown flashes of dominance with strong strikeout numbers, he has struggled in stretches, particularly in recent outings, where he has gone winless over his last seven starts with a 6.51 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Baz has given up 4+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and now has to face a Yankees lineup that has the power to punish him in this ballpark.