MLB Player Prop Picks 8/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Eric Lauer Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays 3:07 PM EST

Eric Lauer has delivered a highly impressive season for the Blue Jays, appearing in 19 games (13 as a starter) and posting a strong 7–2 record. Over 83 innings pitched, he has registered an excellent 2.82 ERA and maintained a tidy 1.06 WHIP, while striking out 83 batters, averaging exactly one strikeout per inning. He’s coming off a tough start, giving up 3 earned runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but has a much more favorable matchup in this game, going against the Rangers. The Rangers have struggled at the plate on the road this season, and luckily for the Blue Jays, Lauer has pitched his best stuff when playing at home. 

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Cade Povich Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros 8:10 PM EST

Cade Povich’s 2025 season with the Baltimore Orioles has been a mix of promise and growing pains. In 15 appearances, including 14 starts, he has posted a 2–6 record with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across 76.1 innings while striking out 80 batters. His arsenal features a five-pitch mix – four-seam fastball, curveball, sweeper, changeup, and sinker. Despite showing swing-and-miss ability, Povich has struggled with hard contact. I can see this causing problems for Povich against a lineup like the Astros. Povich is coming off a good start, but he has struggled with having multiple good starts in a row. I see this being a game where Povich comes down to earth. 

Adrian Houser Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants 10:15 PM EST

Adrian Houser has struggled with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025 following a midseason signing with the White Sox. As of mid-August, he has appeared in 13 games, compiling a 6–4 record, an ERA of 2.84, and a WHIP of 1.32, while totaling 54 strikeouts. Even though we’ve seen him struggle with the Rays through 2 starts, I can’t forget how productive he was when he was with the White Sox, and this should be a good spot for him to return to that form. He’ll be up against this Giants lineup that can’t hit a beach ball right now and is playing in Oracle Park, which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.