MLB Player Prop Picks 8/13/2025 Today’s MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Shane Smith Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox 2:10 PM EST

Shane Smith, the 25-year-old rookie right-hander for the Chicago White Sox, comes into this one with a 3–7 win-loss record, 4.22 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP over 20 starts and 96 innings pitched. He struck out 93 batters and issued 42 walks, holding a K/BB ratio of approximately 2.2. average exit velocity of 90.4 mph, with a hard-hit rate of 46.1%. After a tough stretch of starts, he’s looking like his old self, allowing 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 3 starts. He has a favorable matchup going against this Tigers team that has been lackluster at the plate since returning back from the All-Star break. This should be another great spot for Smith to have a good outing. 

Check out Brad’s BEST PICKS, including his $19 PICK OF THE DAY!

Walker Buehler Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros 7:10 PM EST

Walker Buehler’s 2025 season with the Boston Red Sox has been a mixed bag, marked by stretches of dominance but also extended inconsistency. Over 20 starts, he has posted a 7–6 record with a 5.40 ERA across 100 innings, striking out 75 batters while issuing 46 walks and allowing 110 hits, resulting in a 1.56 WHIP. Statcast data shows opponents making solid contact against him, with an average exit velocity of 88.5 mph, a 39.9% hard-hit rate, and a .361 wOBA. Buehler is coming off a great start against the Padres, but I do see him coming down to earth in this game, going against an Astros team that saw him just on 8/2. In that start, Buehler gave up 3 earned runs. I expect a similar result in this one. 

Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals 2:10 PM EST

Seth Lugo comes into this one with an 8–6 record with a 3.46 ERA, 108 strikeouts, 127.1 innings pitched, and a 1.20 WHIP over 22 starts. The 35-year-old right-hander has maintained his reputation as a dependable rotation piece, showcasing durability and consistency while drawing interest from contenders before the Royals secured him with a two-year, $46 million extension beginning in 2026. Even though Lugo’s numbers look good on paper, we have seen him struggle as of late, giving up 3+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts, and he is coming off a start where he gave up 7 earned runs against the Twins. This Nationals lineup is dangerous and pesky, which I can see giving Lugo problems.