MLB Player Prop Picks 07/30/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers 7:40 PM EST

Freddy Peralta has emerged as Milwaukee’s ace in 2025, tying for the MLB lead with 12 wins while posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 22 starts and 121⅔ innings. He has 131 strikeouts, delivering a strong 9.69 K/9, ranking among the league’s best in ERA, wins, and strikeouts. His dominance, especially at home, includes an undefeated 7–0 record at home, with a 1.55 ERA over 11 starts, racking up 71 strikeouts in front of Milwaukee fans. Peralta has been strong as of late, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Until Peralta shows me something different at home, i’ll be continuing to back him for the rest of the season. 

Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 K’s

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardnials 7:45 PM EST

Miles Mikolas comes in with a 6–7 record, 4.94 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP, while striking out 70 batters (about 6.18 K/9) and walking roughly 2.03 per nine innings. MLB-wide, his work ranks him in the bottom half in strikeout generation. It’s fair to say Mikolas isn’t known for his strikeout abilities. He’ll be up against the Marlins lineup that has been solid on the road this season. Mikolas has been up and down as of late and has the potential to get blown up in this game. Even if Mikolas has a decent outing, I don’t see him having enough Ks to get over this number.

Nick Marintez Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers 7:10 PM EST

Nick Martinez made 23 appearances (21 starts), logging 121.0 innings with a 9–9 record, 4.69 ERA, and 1.22 WHIP. Nick Martinez is one of the more volatile pitchers in the MLB. We’ve seen him show signs of greatness, but he has also had some miserable starts as well. For instance, back on July 8th, he had a start against the Marlins where he allowed 10 earned runs. Even though he’s been solid over his last couple of starts, I’m worried that we could see him get blown up in this one. He’ll be up against this loaded Dodgers lineup in Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter-friendly ballpark. I see the Dodgers getting after Martinez early and often in this one.