MLB Player Prop Picks 07/29/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Justin Verlander Under 2.5 Earned Runs

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates 9:45 PM EST

At age 42, Justin Verlander navigated a challenging season in 2025 marked by a historic winless streak before finally breaking through. Over 17 starts and 84.1 innings, he posted a 1–8 record, a 4.70 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP, striking out 70 batters, good for a 7.47 K/9 rate, while walking batters at an 8.8% clip, both well below his peak standards. Despite these challenges, I do like Verlander in this spot. He’ll be up against this Pirates lineup that has been awful this season, especially when playing on the road. The Pirates have a .208 batting average when playing on the road this season. It doesn’t help that this game is being played at Oracle Park, which is a pitcher-friendly park. I won’t back Verlander much for the remainder of this season, but I think this is a good opportunity to back the veteran. 

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Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardnials 7:45 PM EST

Sandy Alcántara struggled to regain his pre-Tommy John form so far this season; he comes into this one with a 5–9 record, a 6.66 ERA, and a 1.43 WHIP over 104 innings, with 77 strikeouts. These results reflected a season-long battle with command and effectiveness following his long rehabilitation. Opposing batters are averaging a 90.5 mph exit velocity, posting a 41.0% hard-hit rate, and barreling 8.6% of pitches, metrics that sat above MLB norms. He has specifically struggled on the road. He’s coming in this one with a 10.06 ERA away from Miami. He’s allowed 3+ runs in 5 of his last 6 starts, and I don’t see him bouncing back in this one, going against the Cardnials who’ve been strong at the plate in St. Louis.

Michael Soroka Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros 8:10 PM EST

Michael Soroka made 15 starts for Washington in 2025, he has a 3–8 record, 4.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts over 78 innings, translating to a solid 9.58 K/9 rate. He walked just 24 batters, posting a respectable 2.77 BB/9 and maintaining good command across his outings. Even with an ERA over 4, I’ve liked how Soroka has looked as of late, and I expect him to finish out the 2nd half of the season in a positive way. He’s gotten under his earned runs total in 5 of his last 6 games, and he’s coming off back-to-back games where he only allowed 1 earned run in each of those games. He’ll be up against this Astros team that looked terrible this past weekend at the plate, only scoring 7 total runs in a 4-game series against the Athletics.