MLB Player Prop Picks 07/29/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Chris Paddack Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins 7:40 PM EST

Paddack comes in with a 3–9 record, 4.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts, placing him near the bottom quartile in strikeout rate among MLB starters. He’s allowed an 89.9 mph average exit velocity, with a 43.7% hard-hit rate and an 8.4% barrel rate. His actual wOBA allowed (.323) bordered on his xwOBA (.343), suggesting his results were supported by contact quality rather than fluke outcomes. He’s surrendered 14 home runs, tying for the third-most in MLB, translating to a 1.4 HR/9 rate, a major factor in inflating his ERA despite decent control. Paddack is coming off one of his better starts of the season, but still has an ERA over 6 in his last 5 starts. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are coming off a successful series against the Dodgers, and they should carry that momentum into this one. 

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Logan Allen Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians 6:40 PM EST

Logan Allen spent most of the 2025 season as a rotation mainstay for the Guardians, making 20 appearances (19 starts) He comes into this one with a 6–9 record, a 4.16 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP, compiling 78 strikeouts, which translates to a modest 6.9 K/9 rate, placing him in the mid‑range among MLB starters. Allen had some standout outings, including six shutout innings on July 5th and a gem on July 11th, where he allowed just one hit over six innings with five strikeouts. However, he also experienced stretches of inconsistency. It’s evident that Allen is capable of having good starts; it’s just a matter of picking the right spots. I expect him to do well in this one, going against the Rockies. The Rockies have a .233 batting average against lefties and a .206 batting average on the road.

Logan Evans Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Seattle Mariners vs Athletics 10:05 PM EST

Logan Evans enters this game 4–3 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, while striking out 43 batters, a respectable 6.5 K/9 rate for a rookie. His command helped keep walks low (21 total), though his WHIP reflected a fair amount of baserunners in those early innings. Evans’s season featured both promise and volatility. His numbers don’t look bad on paper, but we have to remember that he pitches a lot of his starts at T-Mobile Park, which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Now he’ll be playing at this minor league park in Sacramento, which has been a hitter’s dream this season. He’ll also be up against this Athletics lineup, which caught on fire this past weekend against the Astros. I expect Evans to struggle in this one.