MLB Player Prop Picks 07/23/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

JP Sears Over 4.5 K’s
Athletics vs Texas Rangers 8:05 PM EST

JP Sears has been a true workhorse this year, pitching in 19 starts and logging 101.2 innings with a 7–8 record, 5.13 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. He’s struck out 84 batters and limited walks effectively, posting a strikeout rate of around 19.4% and a walk rate near 7%, both in line with league averages. His road performance has been notably stronger. In 10 away starts, he went 3–3 with a 4.78 ERA and 26 strikeouts, compared to a 5.61 ERA at home. Sears has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Texas Rangers have looked better when it comes to a batting perspective, but they still rank in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories in the MLB. Globe Life Field has been a pitcher’s dream this season, and I expect Sears to continue this momentum when it comes to a strikeout perspective. 

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Chris Paddack Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers 2:10 PM EST

Chris Paddack has made 20 starts, tallying a 3–9 record with a 5.14 ERA, 105.0 innings, 75 strikeouts, and a 1.31 WHIP. His strikeout rate hovers around 16.6%, and his walk rate is approximately 6.2%, both below MLB averages. His strikeout rate hovers around 16.6%, and his walk rate is approximately 6.2%, both slightly below MLB averages. These metrics indicate he’s giving up solid contact more often than not. I expect this heavy-hitting Dodgers lineup to take advantage of that. Paddack has also struggled as of late, giving up 3+ earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. I think this Dodgers lineup gets to Paddack early and often in this game. 

Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians 6:40 PM EST

Charlie Morton, now age 41, has started 15 games out of 21 appearances this year, pitching 88.2 innings and holding a 5–8 record with a 5.58 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts. His strikeout rate is a solid 22.5%, while his walk rate remains a concern. Morton has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, a 40.2% hard-hit rate, and a 7.7% barrel rate, indicating hitters are making well-struck contact. After we saw Morton go on a good stretch of pitching, he returned to his old ways, allowing 7 earned runs in his last start against the Rays. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Morton go through another tough stretch.