Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28th at the Citizens Bank Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 96-66 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 54-26 home record, and are 72-79 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-5 home defeat by the Twins, that ended their three-game winning streak. Their last three games have gone under the total.

The Phillies have a .259 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .432 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 132 RBI and a team-high 56 home runs.

Cristopher Sanchez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 70-91 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the AL Central. The Twins have a 32-48 road record and are 73-78 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-0 road victory over the Phillies and their last 8 games have gone under the total.

The Twins have a .239 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .398 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Byron Buxton leads the Twins with 129 hits, adding team-highs both in RBI, with 83, and in home runs, with 35. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .264 batting average.

Simeon Woods Richardson (R) is the projected starter for the Twins, and he has a 7-4 record, 4.27 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.57
• Home Record: 6-0
• Last 5 against Twins: 1-0

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 14 games following a home loss.
• The Twins have lost each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods-Richardson      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 4.27
• Road Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won each of their last five Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against the Phillies.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four day games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 15 of the Phillies’ last 16 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last six games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous appearances against the Twins.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (56) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.551) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1423).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.259).
• The Twins rank 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (458).
• The Twins rank 25th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.257).

Twins vs Phillies Prediction

The Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies, and they are 4-3 in their last 7 meetings in Philly.

In this Twins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -210 home favorites. Sanchez has been elite for the Phillies this season, and he has been even better at home, with a 2.05 ERA. He is coming into this matchup in excellent form, with a 4-1 record and 1.85 ERA across his last 5 starts. On the flip side, Richardson has been terrible on the road for the Twins, with a 5.89 ERA. Philly has both a better bullpen, and a better offense, that is even stronger against right-handed pitching. Take the Phillies to win this one comfortably and cover the runline.