Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26th at the Citizens Bank Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 94-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 53-25 home record, and are 72-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-0 home victory over the Marlins, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games.

The Phillies have a .260 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .434 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 132 RBI and a team-high 56 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 4-10 record, 6.46 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 69-90 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the AL Central. The Twins have a 31-47 road record and are 73-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-0 road victory over the Rangers, and are 3-1 in their last 4 game. Under is 6-0 in their last 5 games.

The Twins have a .239 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Byron Buxton leads the Twins with 127 hits, adding team-highs both in RBI, with 82, and in home runs, with 34. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average.

Joe Ryan (R) is the projected starter for the Twins, and he has a 13-9 record, 3.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 4-10      ERA: 6.46
• Home Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Twins: 0-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 11 night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan      Record this season: 13-9      ERA: 3.47
• Road Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Twins following a win.
• The Twins have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last six games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Phillies’ last 14 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Twins’ last nine games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in four of the Phillies’ last five home games.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (56) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in each of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Joe Ryan has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Byron Buxton has recorded at least one hit in 16 of his last 18 appearances after playing the previous day.
• Byron Buxton ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.551) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1409).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Twins rank 25th in the league for ERA this season (4.62).
• The Twins rank 6th in the league for walks allowed this season (455).

Twins vs Phillies Prediction

The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies, and are 3-2 in their last 6 meetings in Philly.

In this Twins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -170 home favorites. Both teams have nothing to play for, and the Twins are coming off a series win against the Rangers, and are putting their best pitcher on the mound in Joe Ryan. He goes up against Aaron Nola, who has been terrible this season, and he is coming into this matchup in terrible form, having given up 4+ runs in four of his last five starts. I like the Twins to keep this one close, so take them by +1.5 runs in this one.