Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 23rd in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 87-70 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 42-34 home record and are coming off a 6-4 home win against the Brewers. They will face the Rays next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .241 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Bryce Harper is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 95, adding a team-high 45 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 7-10 record, 4.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 98-59 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 46-33 away record and are coming off a 4-6 road loss against the Phillies. They will face the Rays next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .258 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 93, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 26 home runs.

Logan Henderson (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 10-3 record, 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 7-10      ERA: 4.49
• Home Record: 1-4
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the last 10 games between the Brewers and Phillies.
• The Brewers have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line each of their last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the last 11 games between the Brewers and Phillies.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games at Citizens Bank Park against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Henderson      Record this season: 10-3      ERA: 2.51
• Road Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last six night games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Phillies following a road loss.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites against NL opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Brewers’ last six night games against NL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Logan Henderson’s last nine road appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last five home games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against NL opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Phillies as underdogs against the Brewers.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against the Brewers.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Logan Henderson has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances in night games.
• William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 15 games against the Phillies.
• Logan Henderson has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Phillies.
• Jake Bauers ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1525).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1375).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.340).

Brewers vs Phillies Prediction

The Brewers are 7-4 in their last 11 meetings against the Phillies and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Philadelphia.

In this Brewers vs Phillies Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -140 road favorites. I like the Brewers in a bounce-back spot today with Logan Henderson on the mound, who has been excellent this season with a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Nola has been in very good form but still sits on a 1-4 record and 5.30 ERA at home and the Brewers are scoring 6.9 runs against righties and the Phillies have a 5.60 bullpen ERA in their last 10 games. Take the Brewers in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML