Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and the Texas Rangers meet Sunday in MLB action from Globe Life Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send out Eury Perez for the start here and Perez is 7-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 85 strikeouts this season. This will be Perez’s first career start against the Rangers. Merrill Kelly will get the nod for Texas here and is 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 163 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Miami, Kelly is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and 30 strikeouts.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Rangers from Saturday’s matchup to sit at 75-80 this season. After this set, the Marlins will travel to Philadelphia for an NL East division series against the Phillies.

Marlins Win 5 In A Row & 9 Of Last 10

Xavier Edwards has 148 hits including 20 doubles and a team-high 24 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 111 hits with 27 doubles. Otto Lopez has 123 hits with 18 doubles and 14 home runs with 73 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 115 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 25 home runs and 73 RBIs but also has 125 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 20 home runs, 29 doubles and 63 RBIs on the year.

Texas Rangers Recap

The Texas Rangers come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Marlins on Saturday, falling to 79-76 on the year. After this interleague series, the Rangers will take on the Minnesota Twins in a series at home.

Rangers Drop 6 Straight

Corey Seager has 103 hits including 21 home runs and 50 RBIs while Adolis Garcia has 113 hits with 28 doubles, 18 home runs, 74 RBIs and 13 stolen bases. Josh Jung has 112 hits with 21 doubles, 14 home runs and 59 RBIs while Wyatt Langford has 117 hits with 25 doubles, 21 home runs, 61 RBIs and 21 stolen bases and Jonah Heim has 11 homers and 43 RBIs. Josh Smith has chipped in 123 hits with 23 doubles, 9 home runs and 34 RBIs with 12 stolen bases and Marcus Semien’s added 108 hits with 16 doubles, 15 homers and 62 RBIs but has 93 strikeouts this season.

Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 12-8      ERA: 3.46
• Home Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-2

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Rangers have won each of their last 10 Sunday games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have lost three of their last four day games against AL West opponents following a win.
• The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Rangers have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez      Record this season: 7-5      ERA: 4.40
• Road Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Rangers: –

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Rangers’ last seven games at Globe Life Field.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Rangers’ last eight games at Globe Life Field.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Rangers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three day games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Rangers’ last 11 day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rangers’ last eight home games.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 appearances in day games.
• Corey Seager has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
• Wyatt Langford has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Marcus Semien has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in four of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.45).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (576).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1194).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers Prediction

I’m on Miami here. I get why Texas would be favored here with Merrill Kelly going in what feels like a season on the line spot for the Rangers here, but let’s face it, this entire series has seen Texas’ season on the line and the Rangers have fallen flat on their faces. The Marlins just look like a team that wants to finish the season strong and are aiming to get back to .500 as the next level of progression in the team’s future. I’ll back Miami here.