Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/26/25 MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins are visiting the San Diego Padres on Monday, May 26th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Miami Marlins’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 29-22 record this season and are sitting in third place in the NL West. They have a 16-8 home record, and are 21-28 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 5-3 road victory over the Braves, but are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, and are playing the Giants and the Pirates next. 

The Padres have a .253 batting average this season, a .318 OBP, and a .390 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 60 hits and a team-high .321 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 31, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 12 home runs. 

Randy Vasquez (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 3-4 record, 3.49 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP. He has been much better at home, with a 2.08 ERA across four home starts, and he has given up two runs or less in his last four starts. This will be his first career start against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 21-30 record this season and are sitting in last place in the NL East. The Marlins have an 8-15 road record and are 30-21 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-0 road victory over the Angels and have back-to-back wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Rockies and the Giants next.

The Marlins have a .250 batting average this season, a .316 OBP, and a .388 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.  Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with 54 hits, adding team-highs in RBI with 31, in home runs with 10, and is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average.

Ryan Weathers (L) will take the mound for the Marlins, and he has a 1-0 record, 1.80 ERA, and 0.80 WHIP. He has looked terrific in his two starts this season, with just two earned runs across 10 innings pitched. This will be his first career start against the Padres.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last nine night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last 21 Monday road games.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven night games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games against NL West opponents.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won each of the Padres’ last three games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four road games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against the Padres.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last four road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last seven night games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (364).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.224).
• The Marlins rank 28th in the league for ERA this season (5.31).
• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for runs allowed this season (285).

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Marlins, and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in San Diego. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -140 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record this season and have been very strong at home, while the Marlins have been terrible on the road. The Padres also have a better bullpen, but they struggle mightily against lefties, and Weathers has been lights out so far.

On top of that, Vasquez’s advanced stats show signs of upcoming negative regression, as he has a 5.57 expected ERA, so I think the Marlins can keep this one close as long as those two pitchers are on the mound. Take the Miami Marlins at +0.5 runs in the first 5 innings.