Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/25/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 25th at the Citizens Bank Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 93-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 52-25 home record, and are 72-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-1 home victory over the Marlins, that ended their three-game losing streak. They are playing the Twins next.

The Phillies have a .260 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .435 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 132 RBI and a team-high 56 home runs.

Walker Buehler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 9-7 record, 5.13 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 77-81 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 41-39 road record and are 81-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-11 road defeat by the Phillies, that ended their seven-game winning streak. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Mets next.

The Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .396 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.66 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 153 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.

Janson Junk (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 6-3 record, 4.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 25, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler      Record this season: 9-7      ERA: 5.13
• Home Record: 4-2
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won 15 of their last 17 home games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have lost four of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk      Record this season: 6-3      ERA: 4.27
• Road Record: 4-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 road games against the Phillies following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Phillies’ last 13 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Marlins’ last nine games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last four home games.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (56) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in eight of his last 30 appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (424).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1224).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Marlins, and are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -160 home favorites. The Marlins have not yet been eliminated from the wild card race mathematically, but it would be a miracle if they did. Both pitchers in this matchup have been shaky at best, with a combined 9.40 ERA, and both teams have bottom-11 bullpen ERAs. Both teams are even better against right-handed pitching, averaging 10 runs per game combined, and yesterday’s game had 12 total runs. I expect another high-scoring affair today, so take the over 9 runs in this one.