Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction 7/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros meet Tuesday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send out Tyler Phillips for the start here and Phillips is 2-4 with a 3.48 ERA and 56 strikeouts this season. Tatsuya Imai will start for Houston and is 5-4 with a 6.06 ERA and 63 strikeouts this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to bounce back from their 8-5 loss at the hands of the Astros on Monday to sit at 52-49 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head home for a set against the San Diego Padres.

Marlins Drop 7th Straight

Going into Monday, Xavier Edwards has 109 hits with 13 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 37 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 130 hits with 27 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers and 46 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 88 hits with 9 doubles, 13 home runs and 58 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 65 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs this season. 

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Marlins on Monday to improve to 48-54 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Chicago White Sox.

Astros Snap Four-Game Slide

Entering Monday, Yordan Alvarez has 115 hits with 20 doubles, 31 home runs and 73 RBIs while Christian Walker has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 20 home runs and 58 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 70 hits with 14 doubles, 12 home runs and 28 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 88 hits with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 50 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 70 hits with 13 doubles, 12 home runs and 34 RBIs.

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tatsuya Imai      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 6.06
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Marlins: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games.
• The Astros have won eight of their last nine games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against the Marlins.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Tyler Phillips      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 3.48
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Astros: –

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have lost each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against AL West opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against AL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Marlins and Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against the Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of Tatsuya Imai’s last six appearances as a starter.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in five of the Astros’ last six games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Joe Mack has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (130) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (448).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (448).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).

Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros Prediction

I’m on the Marlins here. I’ve been impressed with Phillips as a starter, and Imai hsa been more than susceptible in his starts at home this season. I think this is going to be an interesting matchup, but I think this is where the slide ends for the Fish. Give me Miami.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Miami -105