Mets vs Reds Prediction 9/5/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 5th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 75-65 this year after they won two out of three against Detroit by scores of 10-8, 12-5, and 2-6. In their game three loss, New York cut the deficit to 3-2 in the sixth inning, but allowed three in the bottom of the seventh to put the game away. The Mets recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Alonso and Vientos, who both had one RBI in the loss. New York started Holmes, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Helsley allowed three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost three out of four against the Marlins, but did win all three against the Phillies before that. New York has lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 674 runs with a .251 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 33 home runs and 113 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 37 home runs and 91 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 8-5 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 152.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 70-70 this season after they lost two out of three against Toronto by scores of 5-4, 9-12, and 9-13. In their game three loss, Cincinnati led 5-0 in the second inning, but their pitching staff fell apart and allowed 12 of the next 13 runs in the game for the loss. The Reds recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Marte, who went 2-5 with three RBIs in the loss. Cincinnati started Littell, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 4.1 innings, while Martinez picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Cardinals and all three against the Dodgers. Cincinnati has lost seven of their last nine games and they are currently third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 634 runs with a .248 batting average and a .318 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 19 home runs and 78 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 17 home runs and 64 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 139.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Reds will beat the Mets

The Mets have lost each of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
The Reds have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets following a home loss.
The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against the Mets at Great American Ball Park.
The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Why the Mets will beat the Reds

The Reds have lost each of their last eight night games following a loss.
The Mets have won each of their last five games at Great American Ball Park following a road loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
The Mets have covered the run line in six of their last seven road games against the Reds following a road loss.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Reds’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Six of the Mets’ last seven night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Mets and Reds at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 Friday games against opponents that held a winning record.
Spencer Steer has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games against the Mets at Great American Ball Park.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
Brett Baty has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances after not playing the previous day.
Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against NL opponents.

Mets vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati limps into this matchup after really struggling over the last two weeks, and they have dropped way back in the wild card race. The Reds are 38-33 at home this year, while the Mets are just 30-38 on the road. New York is 5.5 back in the race for the NL East and their pitching staff has not been good. The Mets are starting Peterson, who has allowed 8, 2, 1, 6, and 4 earned runs in his last five. The Reds are going with Abbott, who has allowed 2, 6, 0, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts. I don’t trust either starter in this game, so give me the over in this contest.