Mets vs Phillies Prediction 9/8/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 8th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 76-67 this year after they lost two out of three against Cincinnati by scores of 5-4, 3-6, and 2-3. In their game three loss, New York led 1-0 in the third inning, but only scored once in the final five innings for the loss. The Mets recorded three hits in the game and they were led by Baty and Soto, who both had one RBI in the loss. NY started Sproat, who allowed three hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Garrett and Rogers finished the game. 

Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Tigers, but did lose three out of four against the Marlins before that. New York has lost three of their last four games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 684 runs with a .251 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 33 home runs and 113 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 38 home runs and 93 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nolan McLean, who is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over 26.1 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 83-60 this season after they won two out of three against Miami by scores of 9-3, 4-2, and 4-5. In their game three loss, Philadelphia fell behind early, but nearly came back in the ninth inning. The Phillies recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Turner, Schwarber, Marsh, and Castellanos, who all had one RBI in the loss. Philadelphia started Walker, who allowed eight hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Alvarado allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Brewers and three out of four against the Braves. Philadelphia has won three of their last four games and they are leading the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 682 runs with a .258 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 49 home runs and 120 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 16 home runs and 62 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 3-8 with a 6.78 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP over 69.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Phillies

The Phillies have lost nine of their last 10 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mets have won 14 of their last 15 games as favorites against the Phillies following a loss.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight Monday night road games against National League opponents.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Five of the Phillies’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Seven of the Mets’ last nine games as favorites against the Phillies have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Phillies as underdogs against NL East opponents.
Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in each of the Mets’ last three games as road favorites.
Starling Marte has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 games as favorites against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Phillies are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
The Mets rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.329).
The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both home runs and batting average this season.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this series with a seven game lead over the Mets in the NL East and they are looking to pretty much end the race with a good showing here. The Phillies are 45-23 at home this year, while the Mets are 31-40 on the road. New York has lost three of their last four games and they are starting McLean, who has been elite through four starts. Philly is going with Nola, who has allowed 10 earned runs and 10 hits in his last 11 innings. Take the Mets to win here.